The Future of the CPC.

 This morning the Canadian Conservative Party lead, Erin O'Toole, lost his job. He was voted out by a majority of his House of Commons caucus.

Where does the CPC go from here?

If O'Toole had survived he'd have had a hard time of it anyway with nearly a quarter of his members openly opposing his leadership.

 

Moreover O'Toole had been trying to drag the party to the political centre. If he'd been successful,  come the next Federal election, many party members and even Conservative MPs would have deserted the CPC for ultra right-wing Maxime Bernier and the People's Party which is supported by Libertarians but, also, by the same population of misinformed voters who have opposed COVID vaccination and vaccine mandates, and members of provincial Western Separatist parties.

As it is O'Toole will certainly be succeeded by someone far more right-winging than he. Pierre Poilievre is a possibility. He is an Ottawa area MP but was born in Alberta and was an assistant to Stockwell Day in the days of the  Canadian Alliance.

At least with such a leader the Conservatives won't lose voters to the PPC but they also won't gain any from people who previously voted Liberal and are looking for an alternative.

It seems the merger of the Reform Party and the Progressive Conservatives was not as successful as it appeared under the iron hand of Stephen Harper. The Progressive Conservative parties are still alive and even governing east of the Manitoba border.  PC party supporters are fiscally conservative but tend to be more liberal on social issues than Conservative voters in the west. 

If PC supporters find themselves seriously disagreeing with the direction the federal Conservatives end up taking it's entirely possible that the two wings of the party might split again. 

Even more likely is that they will simply desert the Conservative party entirely and either hold their noses and vote Liberal or not vote at all.

It's good news for PM Justin Trudeau in any event.